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RFC-035: Mediation Vector Profile — A Validity-Aware Measurement Model for Domains of Concern — 8. The Four-State Variable Model

AIGP Specification › RFC-035: Mediation Vector Profile — A Validity-Aware Measurement Model for Domains of Concern › 8. The Four-State Variable Model

← 7. Core Definitions · Section index · 9. The Gap Calculus →

8. The Four-State Variable Model

Each variable in a Mediation Vector carries four states:

State Meaning AIGP Source
Anticipated What should be true (declared before execution) ANTICIPATE criteria
Actual What was observed or measured from execution-time system behavior, before determining whether the supporting evidence is admissible RECORD, TRACE, STEP_COMPLETE observation
Evidenced The value supportable from admissible, retained, provenance-bound evidence D-DNA signed artifacts, grader outputs
Perceived What the user, operator, or organization believes FEEDBACK signal, human assessment

8.1 Actual Is Not Metaphysical Truth

The “actual” state is not a claim about what really happened in some absolute sense. Empirical systems do not access truth directly — they access observations. The actual state is the execution-time observed value, recorded before admissibility is determined.

The distinction between actual and evidenced is deliberate and load-bearing:

Something may have happened, but the system may not be able to prove it happened.

  • Actual state = what the system observed at execution time (may rest on unsigned, stale, or low-provenance signals)
  • Evidenced state = what the system can defend from admissible, provenance-bound evidence

The distance between them is the Measurement Gap (§9.2) — the signal that something was observed but cannot be proven to the required admissibility level.

A variable is therefore represented as:

variable = {
  anticipated_state,   // from ANTICIPATE — what should be true
  actual_state,        // execution-observed — what was seen (pre-admissibility)
  evidenced_state,     // from admissible D-DNA evidence — what can be proven
  perceived_state      // from FEEDBACK / human — what is believed
}

8.2 State Population Rules

State Population Trigger Required Evidence
Anticipated ANTICIPATE message sealed Criterion assertion from Domain of Concern template
Actual Execution observed System observation at execution time, prior to admissibility check
Evidenced Admissible evidence chain available Provenance-bound artifact meeting the variable’s min_admissibility_level
Perceived FEEDBACK received OR human assessment recorded User signal, reviewer judgment, organizational claim

Actual state is the execution-observed value. Evidenced state is the best value supportable from admissible evidence — which may be lower-confidence than, equal to, or absent relative to the actual observation. Perceived state represents claims, assumptions, user feedback, or organizational understanding.

← 7. Core Definitions · Section index · 9. The Gap Calculus →